Mind Blogging. Mind Boggling.

With the world seeing at the same time, shenanigans of Trump, age-polarised voting for Brexit, the rise of an opaque, authoritarian yet successful China, and the undermining of democracy in Russia, there is surely an upheaval in the world order and in democracy. USA, Britain, China and Russia are top-5 heavy hitters in their world stature today, and in the last 100 years in term of economic, political and cultural mark on rest of the world (the other being Germany I would say)Why is democracy in poor health?

Urbanization is increasing drastically, in 2007 we crossed landmark figure of 50% of humans living in urban areas. By 2050, it will be 67%. I postulate that the organic bottom-up democratic and community-organization urges are weaker in urban areas than in rural areas. Currently, people move from city to city regularly, hardly know their neighbors (as seen in the example of me and my friends) and enjoy the 'anonymity' that the modern city offers them. Most immigrant people in Indian cities don't care to learn the local language, which is the most practical course of action. In urban societies, I am more connected to my fellow lovers of Arsenal football club (say) all over the world, than my own neighbours. In fact, the more 'educated' a human is, the more likely one is going to be engaged in global interest groups and professional communities, and thus disengaged from local community, thus stripping the democracy of its most learned participants. Individualism, and small sub-groups, have become the units of measure instead of larger communities. Thus, one of the chief pillars of a robust democracy, which is a rich community engagement in the democracy from the bottom-up, has been stripped away through this trend of urbanization and individualism.

At the same time, the world is growing increasingly complex and data-rich. Whatever my point of view is, if I devote time to it I can find data points to defend it, and it is increasingly hard for the occasional dabbler (average Joe) to argue against these well formed points of view. Now the average Joe (juggling job, family, hobbies) has lesser and lesser time, but has to devote more and more time to ensure he listens to both Right media and Left media, delves into the data, and crafts a nuanced point of view.  Even if he does want to make the effort, how does he instill the discipline to confine himself to one right wing magazine and one left wing magazine? Should it be magazine, website, blog, podcast or twitter account? What about the regular stream of news links which flood in through whatsapp groups- how can Joe ignore all of these? These demands are further worsened by the fact that jobs are getting more intellectually demanding as blue collar, repetitive-task jobs disappear.

In this scenario, people are drawn towards a commanding leader who can offer a clear point of view amid all the clutter, speaking in attractive analogies and slogans. Given that data points are numerous as mentioned at the start of this para, this leader can pick from data points available to back his own point of view, and present a convincing but simplified and perhaps polarized point of view. The reality is that that most people and situations are grey, and not black and white. However, the power of communication is seriously undermined when one keeps adding 'on the other hand' to the end of every communication, so it's better communication to paint the issue black or white. A polarized point of view can cut through the clutter more easily. Further, due to the virality and abundance of news and facts, a few 'fake' items can also be slipped in to make the point of view stronger. Once the lie is exposed, 2-3 months later- it's too late. By that time, 'tetris effect' has already set in (the famous effect of tetris players seeing the world in tetris blocks)- people already see the world through that lens, and are too invested (both emotion and time) in one side to change their point of view. Next is the perverse comeback of 'physical attractiveness' in the desirability charts-  I read somewhere that in matchmaking, there is so much data about the partner, and so many options on so many apps, that singletons get overwhelmed and end up choosing based on the most simple metric- looks.   

Enter Trump. 'Build the wall', 'Shovel the coal' - concrete and simple solutions, which many can easily relate to, to solve the woes of America. As opposed to say Elizabeth Warren, who is not as convincing or witty a speaker, speaks in complex words, is professorial looking and not immediately striking, and ends every sentence with 'on the other hand' . Similarly, both Trump and Boris have weird haridos, Trump's son and daughter are immaculately turned out and attractive-looking, ready to cut through the clutter.

What about China model? Well, we saw its failings in the information-quashing episodes behind SARS and Coronavirus , tensions with rest of the world are rife (South China sea, Trade wars) and it is questionable if humans would like to live in a society where basic freedoms are curtailed.

Thus, world over, government seems to be floundering . However, the role of a government is mission critical, today. Firstly, to solve the problem of helping citizens make sense of all the issues of the world through smart communication- striking a balance between simple and attractive messaging for the pressed-for-time populace, a messaging which at the same time bakes in all the complexities and available data. Put in another way, to convert a lengthy article, which is a truer reflection of reality, to a palatable tweet or instagram picture. Secondly, to use this smart communication to get the disjoint populace engaged- create coherent campaigns that unites humanity with the right rallying cries, cutting through individualism/small-groupism. Lastly, building on the first two and also most importantly, to address the issue of climate change that is staring us in the face. The situation on the climate change front is dire, as anyone who has spent even half an hour by himself reading serious material, will realize (this article is one among many good starting points). Covid-19 is a wake up call - because many Climate change agnosts, including me to a great extent, were smug in the knowledge that human technology and our global pool of talent will solve any problem. Where is our much-vaunted technology today, when the world is on its knees due to the virus? And as for a concerted global effort against the virus- there's borders being sealed and blame games being played. Ok- middle class types may not be on their knees and perhaps even enjoying the forced break, but what about daily wage workers- their livelihood is badly hit, and it's not that they will have certain access to a ventilator when they contract the virus. This is a precursor to an extreme climate change event- our much vaunted technology will be helpless, and the poor and marginalized will be most at risk. Imagine a flooding in low-lying Bangladesh and Mumbai- in that scenario, I shudder to imagine the ghastly consequences to already-creaking South Asia. Also, borders of other countries are likely to be closed, in such a scenario. Further, once the event has happened, it is too late to react - just as in the case of Covid-19.

Today, as the book Collapse by Jared Diamond cogently mentions, a strong effort at both top down (Government) and bottom up (citizen communities) is absolutely required for the radical reimagination of society and life required for meeting climate change goals. However, as I have mentioned, both bottom-up citizen communities and top down organization (government), both are floundering. Unfortunately, at the time when the challenge facing humanity as a whole is hardest, our organization and sense of unity appears to me to be weaker-than-desired.

For the species as a whole, it seems a dark time. If one were to take a step back and view it all as part of a potboiler , the plot has seriously thickened by now. Here are the chapters that build up the suspense: Chapter 1 : Floundering Communities, Chapter 2 : Deadly Game of Thrones, Chapter 3 : Climate Challenge Looms Large, and Chapter 4: Covid-19- Taste of Things to Come?  The reader will yearn to flip the page to the next chapter: Chapter 5: The Perfect Storm